2024-06-29

del Washington Post KAMALA HARRIS VERSUS TRUMP FEMINISMO CONTRA MACHISMO Y ENTRE MEDIAS SATANISMO

So, uh, how would Kamala Harris do against Trump?

A look at polling in an effort to answer a newly popular question.

National columnist

June 28, 2024 at 10:56 a.m. EDT

Vice President Harris delivers remarks on reproductive rights in College Park, Md., on June 24. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

4 min

President Biden is now threatened by the sentiment that brought him to the White House.

Democrats came into 2020 traumatized by their party’s 2016 loss and by four years of Donald Trump’s hard-right presidency. The party internalized the idea that the key to beating Trump was doing better with blue-collar Midwestern Whites, and Biden was the natural guy to fill that gap. When you asked Democrats that year whom they planned to support, they would often indicate that they preferred a non-Biden candidate to be the nominee — but that Biden seemed like the best bet to win.

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And he did.

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In 2024, the left’s core motivation is the same: It is essential that Trump lose. The difference is that, unlike four years ago, Biden and his party aren’t on the same page about how that can happen. For months, Biden and his team have projected the sense that they know how to beat the former president and that they will do so again. But Democrats have been less confident of that. Biden’s support has often been driven mostly by hostility to Trump, not enthusiasm for Biden.

Then came Thursday’s debate. Far from assuaging concerns about his candidacy, Biden reinforced them. The split between the president and his party about November has become an open wound. Maybe it can be healed — or maybe it is already turning gangrenous.

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The question on many Democrats’ minds is who might serve as the party’s nominee in Biden’s stead. A lot of this is simply casting around in the dark, wishing for a scenario in which Biden magically disappears from ballots and is magically replaced by The Popular Democrat, someone all Democrats agree upon and a majority of voters would like to see as president.

In reality, the non-Biden Democratic candidate for president in 2024 would be Kamala D. Harris. Biden would have to step aside willingly for that to happen, which seems more possible now than it did earlier this week, though it still seems unlikely. The idea that this would then trigger some sophisticated, calm debate over a replacement that resulted in party unity is sophomoric. Harris is the vice president, the person already chosen by the party to be next in line for the presidency. Unless she, too, opted not to be president, she is the person to whom the nomination would go.

And for all of the negative media coverage that Harris has seen during her tenure as vice president, polling suggests that she polls about as well as Biden — and has some advantages that Biden lacks.

Pollsters have only sporadically asked voters who they would prefer in a Harris-Trump contest for the obvious reason that they would be burning a poll question (and, therefore, money) on an unlikely hypothetical. But we have data from February New York Times-Siena College polling and a November Fox News poll that provides some insight.

The question isn’t really how Harris fares against Trump, though we can answer that easily: Trump led her by six points in the Times poll and five points in the Fox News one. What’s important, instead, is how that compares with Biden’s numbers. Biden trailed Trump in those polls, too: by four points in each. So Harris fares only one or two points worse than Biden in polls with margins of sampling error that are much larger than that.

Looking at the results among subgroups is risky, since those necessarily include fewer people and have larger margins of error. Harris does worse with men against Trump than Biden does in both polls, but she does better with Black voters.

We have more recent data considering how favorably Biden and Harris are viewed, including polling this week for the Economist conducted by YouGov. In both the YouGov and Times polls, Harris gets more favorable net favorability ratings than Biden among younger and non-White Americans — both groups with which Biden has struggled.

These polls offer only an approximation of what might happen, of course. Harris’s relatively low profile as vice president is one reason that views don’t diverge that much from how people view a Biden-Trump contest. Should Biden step down and Harris step up, the dynamics would reset in unpredictable ways. Harris would be hammered for being the administration’s point person on the border, for example, but she could also be a more effective voice on the issue of abortion access.

What is fair to say is that polling suggests Harris doesn’t necessarily fare significantly worse than Biden against Trump and is viewed about as favorably. If she became the Democratic presidential nominee, she would have an obvious advantage over Biden: She is only 59 years old.

She also shares Biden’s biggest advantage going into November.

She isn’t Donald Trump.

By Philip Bump

Philip Bump is a Post columnist based in New York. He writes the newsletter How To Read This Chart and is the author of The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America. Twitter

萬巴的騾子能承受一切

萬巴的蟾蜍雨

奇怪的氣象現象。編年史稱，暴風雨過後，萬巴下了一場蟾蜍和蛇雨。這一定是一個詛咒壓在這個有著西哥特名字的平西亞小鎮上，西哥特邪惡，嫉妒和糟糕的主人，打開報紙，打開電視看看新聞節目說什麼，古老的小調會響起： :

萬巴的騾子既不拉屎，也不撒尿，也不吃，不喝，也不操，也不撒尿，但它總是走路

蟾蜍蛇雨，石塊從天而降，西班牙遭受一切苦難。多少惡毒，下水道裡的政客，香腸記者，乖張的神職人員，多變的基督徒。每個人都在拉車，忍受著萬巴那匹承受一切的騾子的踢打和放屁。

LA MULE DE WAMBA DURE TOUT

PLUIE DE CRAPAUDS À WAMBA

Étrange phénomène météorologique. Les chroniques racontent qu'après la tempête une pluie de crapauds et de serpents tomba sur Wamba. Ce doit être une malédiction qui pèse sur cette ville pincienne au nom wisigoth, le mal wisigoth, l'envie et le mauvais hôte, ouvrez les journaux, allumez la télé pour voir ce que disent les journaux télévisés et sonnera la vieille chanson qui dit :

La mule de Wamba ne chie ni ne pisse ni ne mange ni ne boit ni ne baise ni ne fait pipi mais elle marche toujours

Les crapauds et les serpents pleuvent, les pierres tombent du ciel, l'Espagne souffre de tout. Quelle méchanceté, Égout de politiciens trincone, de journalistes chorizo, de clercs pervers, de chrétiens changeants. Tout le monde tire la charrette, encaissant les coups et les pets de la mule de Wamba qui endure tout.

CATARUL LUI WAMBA SUPORTĂ TOT

PLOAIA DE BRĂI ȘI ÎN WAMBA

Fenomen meteorologic ciudat. Cronicile spun că după furtună a căzut în Wamba o ploaie de broaște râioase și șerpi. Trebuie să fie un blestem care cântărește pe acest oraș pincian cu nume vizigot, răul vizigot, invidia și gazda rea, deschideți ziarele, dați televizorul să vedeți ce spun programele de știri și va suna vechea cântare care spune :

Catârul lui Wamba nici nu se cacă, nici nu se pișează, nici nu mănâncă, nici bea, nici naiba, nici nu face pipi, dar merge mereu

Broaște râioase și șerpi plouă, pietre cad din cer, Spania suferă totul. Câtă răutate, Canalizare a politicienilor trincone, jurnaliştilor chorizo, clerici perversi, creştini schimbători. Toată lumea trage căruța, suportând lovituri și farturi de la catârul lui Wamba care îndură totul.

МУЛ ВАМБЫ ВЫдерживает ВСЕ

ДОЖДЬ ЖАБ В ВАМБЕ

Странное метеорологическое явление. В хрониках говорится, что после бури в Вамбе пролился дождь из жаб и змей. Должно быть, это проклятие тяготит этот пинцианский город с вестготским названием, вестготское зло, зависть и плохой хозяин, откройте газеты, включите телевизор, чтобы посмотреть, что говорят программы новостей, и прозвучит старая песенка, в которой говорится: :

Мул Вамбы не гадит, не писает, не ест, не пьет, не трахается и не писает, а всегда ходит.

Из жаб и змей идет дождь, с неба падают камни, Испания все терпит. Сколько злобы, Канализация триконских политиков, журналистов чоризо, извращенных священнослужителей, изменчивых христиан. Все тянут телегу, терпя пинки и пердеж от выносливого все мула Вамбы.

LIBROS A LA BASURA LO QUE SE PUBLICA AHORA ES UNA MIERDA del diario Die Welt

Este último lo producen SWR y RBB para la mediateca ARD y se considera un formato llamado joven. Hegemann modera un espectáculo que tiene poco que ver con la crítica literaria y destaca de manera un tanto confusa personalidades de la burbuja berlinesa y su relación con los libros. Esto fue celebrado por el periódico Süddeutsche Zeitung (pero también sólo allí) como un “desarrollo adicional del clásico formato de conversación – también llamado charla – para la dramaturgia con énfasis en el ritmo de la producción de la mediateca”.

TAMBIÉN LEE

JUSTICIA INTERGENERACIONAL

ARD quiere ahorrar en programación para antiguos espectadores

El quid de nuestro tiempo ya está en la redacción. Se trata de canales de distribución, no de educación, y mucho menos de sostenibilidad. El formato anterior de Hegemann, "Orange Studio" de Sophie Passmann, fue cancelado con razón después de sólo tres episodios. Cada vez más, las innovaciones son fines de pánico en sí mismos, los formatos son puramente globos de prueba. ¿Y probado y probado? Quedarse en el camino.

La reseña literaria como técnica cultural.

La reseña crítica de un libro con roles asignados es una técnica cultural centenaria que el filósofo y padre de la Ilustración Christian Thomasius inventó en 1688 en su revista Monthly Talks , en aquella época como un diálogo con participantes ficticios. Thomasius sabía que el conocimiento sobre los libros se desarrolla mejor como una conversación social.

No existe una única forma de ver los libros, cada uno lee de forma diferente, y es exactamente por eso que las conversaciones sobre material de lectura están en auge. En salones, festivales literarios y en la televisión internacional. Simplemente ya no está en SWR. ¿Apuesta a que pronto también se contarán los “recién salidos de la prensa”? Pero ciertamente no es una de las mil películas de Degeto.

KAMALA HARRIS LA MANO DERECHA DE BIDEN DERRAMADORA DE SANGRE PARTICIPANTE EN RITUALES SATANICOS MADRE DE LAS FEMINAZIS ORGANIZADORA DEL NOM ANTICRISTIANO Y ANTIRUSO LA CARA OCULTA DE ESE OCTOGENARIO GAGÁ QUE MANDA ENTRE LOS GRINGOS AUNQUE EL QUE VIENE ES PEOR TRUMP EL TRAMPOSO TROMPA ELEFANTINA

MUCHISIMO CUIDADO CON ESTA FULANA, INFORMACION DEL WASHINGTON YO ESCRIBIRÉ UNA GLOSA VUANDO ME VAGUE AUNQUE ME DAN ARCADAS SI TENGO QUE ESCRIBIR SOBRE ESTA TIPA QUE ES UN PELIGRO PARA EL GENERO HUMANO

Biden’s halting debate performance puts a renewed spotlight on Harris

Vice President Harris is in a uniquely tricky position as both Biden’s top lieutenant and his most obvious successor.

By Cleve R. Wootson Jr.

June 28, 2024 at 6:32 p.m. EDT

Vice President Harris delivers remarks on May 13. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post)

7 min

In the moments after President Biden’s halting debate performance Thursday, Vice President Harris went on a pair of television networks to praise him. She spent Friday crisscrossing the western United States, challenging those who worried he seemed old and ineffective.

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And she took to social media on his behalf. “In a real leader, character matters more than style, and Donald Trump simply does not have the character to be President of the United States,” said one of the vice president’s posts on X.

Biden’s performance Thursday night, when he struggled for answers and occasionally appeared to lose his train of thought, abruptly placed a renewed spotlight on Harris. She emerged as Biden’s chief defender, but she also tops the list of those who could replace him if the landscape shifts.

It was a new wrinkle in what has been a complicated tenure for Harris, and potentially for her political future. When Biden picked Harris as his running mate in 2020, she was viewed as his heir apparent and made history as the first Black and Asian American woman to win a nationally elected office. But some Democrats believe her own 2020 presidential run exposed her as a weak candidate, and they say privately that as vice president she has struggled with verbal missteps and a low profile.

Bakari Sellers, a former South Carolina state senator and longtime Harris supporter, said the best way for Harris to bolster her prospects for a future presidential candidacy — whenever it may be — is to embrace her role as Biden’s biggest cheerleader.

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"One of the things that people around Joe Biden questioned was Kamala Harris’s ambition,” Sellers said. “He’s at the bottom right now. He’s at his worst right now. And who is his biggest supporter outside of Jill? It’s Kamala Harris.”

Sellers is among the Harris allies who say they believe she has recovered from a rocky first year as vice president, hitting her stride with appearances touting reproductive freedom and economic mobility. Should the party find itself looking for a presidential nominee, he suggested only Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg would be a worthy rival to her.

“The top tier of talent in the Democratic Party is Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg,” he said. “The most talented people we have in the party are Kamala and Pete, and I think when people look at it objectively, they would resolve the same thing.”

Biden on Friday gave no indication he is reconsidering his candidacy, delivering a fiery speech at a Raleigh event in North Carolina. “I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious,” he said. “I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know: I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to do this job.”

Almost since Biden took office, Democrats have speculated on who could be their next standard-bearer, and the often-mentioned go far beyond Harris, including such figures as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and California Rep. Ro Khanna.

As anxiety bubbled up in Democratic circles Friday, Harris faced another round of questions about her bona fides, according to more than half a dozen Democratic strategists, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Some argued she has increasingly found her footing and that any presidential hopeful who sought to leapfrog over the first woman of color to serve as vice president would risk a powerful backlash.

“The first two years were so bad. Now we’re back up the roller coaster,” said one Harris supporter. “I won’t say my position on her has changed, but what she’s doing is making sure that no one can skip over her.”

Harris emerged as a leading voice on abortion rights after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, seizing on a central plank in the Democratic platform and one Biden sometimes seems uncomfortable discussing. She has traveled the country to talk about the erosion of rights, courting conflict with some of the GOP’s most vocal antiabortion voices.

Harris has also bolstered her résumé on the world stage, meeting a half-dozen times with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky amid Russia’s invasion of his country and holding confabs with dozens of world leaders.

Since Thursday’s debate, Harris has dodged or deflected questions about whether Biden should step down, while praising him as an effective president and moral man.

“It was a slow start. That’s obvious to everyone. I’m not going to debate that point,” Harris told CNN in the moments following the debate. “I’m talking about the choice for November. I’m talking about one of the most important elections in our collective lifetime.”

Biden’s camp had pushed for Thursday’s event, the earliest general-election presidential debate ever, hoping to assure uncertain voters that the oldest president in history has the acuity and stamina to lead the nation for another four years.

Instead, Biden’s raspy voice and occasional non-sequiturs alarmed many Democrats. At times when Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, was speaking, Biden stood listening with his mouth agape.

“I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump interjected after one Biden answer. “I don’t think he knows what he said, either.”

Democrats’ worries about Biden’s performance spilled out before the debate’s first commercial break, reviving questions Biden has faced about his age since he announced he was seeking the White House in 2020. Those questions have put an added focus on the person who would replace him if he were unable to serve.

Some Republicans have blasted Harris as unfit to be president. Others have called her an embodiment of the “woke” left. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis invited her to debate slavery in Tallahassee as he sought to eradicate critical race theory from being taught in Florida schools. Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley warned that “a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Kamala Harris.”